by Howard Wong, AIA
TRANSIT 2025: A TIPPING POINT
Transit Budget Crisis Overview
As State/Federal assistance funds run out, with little chance of additional subsidies, transit agencies are facing fiscal cliffs and doom loop scenarios—where service cuts exacerbate ridership declines, triggering more cuts. Without sustainable funding sources, transit agencies face on-going annual structural deficits. Muni: $360 million. BART: $300-$400 million. Caltrain: $36 million.
Tough Choices Ahead
Transit agencies are pondering dire options—some of which can preserve transit service at the expense of future needs. Muni is analyzing a range of unprecedented fare/fee/fine hikes and service cuts, including suspending neighborhood/hilltop bus routes. During the pandemic, many hilltop residents felt trapped without routes like the 35-Eureka, 36-Teresita, 37-Corbett, and 39-Coit. Support is needed for Muni’s policy goal of having every resident within a 1/4-mile or 2-3 blocks of a transit stop, thus protecting neighborhood lines. Other service cuts might include decreased frequencies, suspending cable cars/historic streetcars, earlier owl hours, and a host of route shortenings/suspensions. A Muni Funding Working Group is analyzing options and might set priorities in early 2025.
Possible Flexing of Capital Funds to Operations
One of the largest potential sources of Muni operating funds is the flexing of capital funds—up to $205 million annually. Within legal restrictions, certain capital project funds can be shifted to support operations. But in the long term, smaller capital investments would degrade service reliability, street/safety improvements, and necessary maintenance—leading to higher costs down the line. Flexing funds would be a stop-gap measure until more permanent funding sources are identified.
Possible Flexing of Federal Funds
In combination with Muni flexing of local capital funds, the state can flex federal transportation funds. By example, Pennsylvania’s governor shifted federal highway funds to Philadelphia’s transit system—a rarely-used but available tool. California receives billions of federal dollars each year to maintain all transportation systems. By default, 80 percent goes to highways and 20 percent to mass transit. Governors can choose to flex half of their state’s highway funding to transit projects instead but not without political repercussions though, since road projects have their constituency.
The Great Hope: MTC Regional Transportation Funding Measure
A large regional funding measure is targeted for the November 2026 election. There are disagreements amongst the Bay Areas’ nine counties, in regard to funding size/source/distribution, duration, consolidation of 27 transit agencies, impacts on local transit tax measures, and more. The MTC (Metropolitan Transportation Commission) is polling voters on two funding options, developed by an MTC Select Committee.
Option 1 is a10-year half-cent sales tax to fund transit only, generating $560 million a year (includes only Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, and San Mateo counties, with an opt-in provision for Santa Clara County).
Option 2 is a 30-year hybrid sales tax/parcel tax to fund transit and infrastructure, generating $1.3 to $1.5 billion a year (includes same four counties, with opt-in provisions for Marin, Napa, Solano, Sonoma, and Santa Clara counties).
The polling would also assess voter support for a variable tax rate, with a higher tax rate for San Francisco, which has the highest operating needs.
Public Transit Hope
There is strong voter support for transforming Bay Area transit, improving mobility choices throughout the region, and decreasing transportation costs/traffic congestion/environmental impacts. MTC has focused on transforming regional transit—with a new Regional Network Manager, formal coordination amongst 27 transit agencies, coordination of regional transfers/mapping/wayfinding/Clipper cards/accessibility/equity, and more. Like great metropolitan transportation systems around the world, the Bay Area’s disjointed system can evolve and transform. Voters need to be inspired by a transformative vision for Bay Area transit.
| “An advanced city is not a place where the poor move about in cars, rather it’s where even the rich use public transportation.” Enrique Penalosa |
Reminder
The “daylighting” parking law will be enforced starting on March 1, 2025. The State law prohibits parking within 20 feet of the approach side of any marked or unmarked crosswalk or within 15 feet of any crosswalk with a curb extension. Fines will start at $40.
“Daylighting” improves pedestrian/traffic safety via high visibility at intersections and has had great success in other cities/countries. However, San Francisco will lose 14,000 parking spaces, necessitating neighborhood parking management plans—especially in already parking-deprived North Beach and environs.
| “From the late 1940s, into and through the ’50s, there developed a complex interaction between federal government, state and local government, real-estate interests, commercial interests and court decisions, which had the effect of undermining the mass transit system across the country.” Noam Chomsky |
